Summing the estimates of energy and carbon emission reductions for
the R&D and six deployment policies discussed above provides a reasonable
estimate of the past impacts of these policies (Table 3).
It also characterizes the
benefits that could be achieved by extending and expanding these policies into the future.
In summing the estimates in Table 3, consider on the one hand that to some extent, the R&D
and six deployment policies overlap, causing total savings to be lower. On the other hand, additional
funding could substantially improve the cost effectiveness of some of these programs, causing total
savings to be greater. For example, the Weatherization Assistance Program currently can only retrofit
the homes of a small fraction of eligible households each year. Also, the retrospective impact of past
investments in buildings energy R&D is underestimated and does not include savings from renewable
With these caveats in mind, annual savings over the past several years from these R&D and six
deployment policies are estimated to be approximately 3.4 quads and 65 MMTC, representing 10 percent
of U.S. CO
emissions from buildings in 2002. The largest contributors are appliance standards and the
ENERGY STAR Program. Potential annual impacts in the 2020 to 2025 time frame are 12 quads saved
and 200 MMTC avoided. This represents 23 percent of the forecasted carbon emissions of buildings in
the United States in 2025, or 9 percent of total projected carbon emissions. The largest contributors are
federal funding for buildings energy R&D (especially solid state lighting) and appliance standards.
This prospective energy savings estimate is larger than the results derived from an advanced poli
cy case modeled over a 25 year period in the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future (which were 8 quads for
the building sector).
However, the prospective carbon reductions are smaller than in the scenarios
study (238 MMTC). The scenarios study did not model as large a potential impact for research driven
technology breakthroughs in the building sector, which accounts for its smaller energy savings estimates,
but it did model a significant decarbonization of the power sector associated with the advanced policies,
which accounts for its larger carbon reduction estimates.
Towards a Climate Friendly