GCOS GOOS WCRP/OOPC IX/3
Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) observing principles, thereby ensuring that they
are useful for multiple purposes, including climate change. A strategic plan is required for the
progressive, coordinated, periodic analyses and reanalyses of observations, which are
necessary to incorporate lessons from new measurements and research, and also for the
stewardship, archival and access of data, as well as the support to enable institutions to do
these tasks. Increased resources are needed to achieve more effective exploitation of current
and planned observations (especially for satellites) through increased international
cooperation on developing integrated analyses and products. The transition from research to
operational systems is also an important practical issue. It will be a task within COPES to
work closely with GCOS, GOOS, GTOS, GEO, IGOS P to specify with more precision the
observations needed to improve the realisable predictability of climate at various temporal
and spatial scales.
COPES modelling strategy has been proposed and will be refined in future.
The three new WCRP structural elements responding to the needs of COPES are the
WCRP Modelling Panel, Working Group on Observations and Assimilation (WGOA), and
WCRP Task Forces. The prime role of the Modelling Panel will be to coordinate and integrate
modelling activities across WCRP with the purpose of meeting the WCRP objectives,
especially in the context of COPES.
The WGOA is expected:
a. to foster, promote and coordinate synthesis of global observations from the
atmosphere, oceans, land and cryosphere, and for the fully coupled system, through
analysis, reanalysis and assimilation activities across WCRP, including the Modelling
b. to act as a focal point for WCRP interactions with other groups and programmes (e.g.
WMO, IOC, GCOS, GOOS, GTOS, AOPC, OOPC, TOPC, JCOMM, IGBP, IGOS P,
CEOS, IPCC, etc) on observational requirements for WCRP and assist in optimization
of observational strategies for sustained observations;
c. to promote and coordinate WCRP information and data management activities,
including development of web sites, in liaison with WCRP projects.
Following a decision at JSC XXIV (March 2003), which recognised the importance of
seasonal prediction as a specific objective under COPES, a limited term WCRP Task Force
on Seasonal Prediction (TFSP) was established. The prime aim of the TFSP is to determine
the extent to which seasonal prediction of the global climate system is possible and useful in
all regions of the globe with currently available models and data. JSC XXV also decided to
establish a Task Force for the further development of the COPES strategic framework for the
WCRP for the period 2005 2015. The Task Force is expected to elaborate and detail the
organisation and initial objectives of COPES so as to exploit to the full the expertise of the
WCRP projects and other activities.
The COPES initiative is intended to provide a stimulus for the science of the WCRP
community, and to widen the recognition of its relevance for a sustainable future. All past and
existing WCRP activities have been conceived and developed with the help of a wide
community of climate scientists. Comments and suggestions on COPES are welcomed.
Dr Sergey Gulev, a member of the WCRP JSC, complemented Dr Ryabinin's
presentation by a condensed review of activities in the WCRP projects and the Working