TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Preface
......................................................................................................................ii
Acronyms
.....................................................................................................................vi
List of Figures
....................................................................................................................vii
Chapter 1:
Introduction.................................................................................................1
1.1 Purpose of the manual.............................................................................1
1.2 Challenges of price analysis ....................................................................1
1.3 Organization of the manual......................................................................2
1.4 Concept of the worksheets......................................................................3
Chapter 2:
Price theory and analysis for early warning ..............................................4
2.1 Introduction.............................................................................................4
2.2 Why monitor prices? ...............................................................................4
2.3 Simple price theory.................................................................................4
      2.3.1 What do prices do?.........................................................................5
      2.3.2 What is a market? ...........................................................................6
      2.3.3 How are markets organized and what is the impact on
   prices?............................................................................................6
      2.3.4 Some key marketing concepts.........................................................6
      2.3.5 What price trends are anticipated after an average, above
    average, and below average harvest? .............................................8
       2.3.6 Influence of macroeconomic conditions on market
    behavior ........................................................................................9
Chapter 3: 
Food system context..................................................................................10
3.1 Introduction...........................................................................................10
3.2 Important contextual information..........................................................10
      3.2.1 Agricultural production patterns....................................................10
      3.2.2 Consumption patterns ...................................................................12
      3.2.3 Domestic marketing patterns.........................................................15
      3.2.4 External trade patterns ..................................................................16
      3.2.5 Historical and current marketing policies......................................18
      3.2.6 Macroeconomic influences on marketing and consumptio n..........20
3.3 Deciding what to monitor ......................................................................22
       3.3.1 Identification of existing markets with available data...................23
       3.3.2 Selection of markets.....................................................................23
       3.3.3 Selection of commodities.............................................................24
Chapter 4:
Data collection and management .............................................................26
4.1 Introduction...........................................................................................26
4.2 Data management and verification........................................................26
4.3 Selection of software to analyze and present price data .........................28
iii
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