CHAPTER 3
THE CURRENT POSITION: 1998 2002
1. This chapter sets out what we know of Saddam Hussein's chemical, biological,
nuclear and ballistic missile programmes, drawing on all the available evidence.
While it takes account of the results from UN inspections and other publicly
available information, it also draws heavily on the latest intelligence about Iraqi
efforts to develop their programmes and capabilities since 1998. The main
conclusions are that:
G
Iraq has a useable chemical and biological weapons capability, in breach of
UNSCR 687, which has included recent production of chemical and
biological agents;
G
Saddam continues to attach great importance to the possession of weapons
of mass destruction and ballistic missiles which he regards as being the basis
for Iraq's regional power. He is determined to retain these capabilities;
G
Iraq can deliver chemical and biological agents using an extensive range of
artillery shells, free fall bombs, sprayers and ballistic missiles;
G
Iraq continues to work on developing nuclear weapons, in breach of its
obligations under the Non Proliferation Treaty and in breach of UNSCR
687. Uranium has been sought from Africa that has no civil nuclear
application in Iraq;
G
Iraq possesses extended range versions of the SCUD ballistic missile in
breach of UNSCR 687 which are capable of reaching Cyprus, Eastern
Turkey, Tehran and Israel. It is also developing longer range ballistic
missiles;
G
Iraq's current military planning specifically envisages the use of chemical
and biological weapons;
G
Iraq's military forces are able to use chemical and biological weapons, with
command, control and logistical arrangements in place. The Iraqi military are
able to deploy these weapons within 45 minutes of a decision to do so;
G
Iraq has learnt lessons from previous UN weapons inspections and is already
taking steps to conceal and disperse sensitive equipment and documentation
in advance of the return of inspectors;
G
Iraq's chemical, biological, nuclear and ballistic missiles programmes are
well funded.
CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS
Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) Assessment: 1999 2002
2. Since the withdrawal of the inspectors the JIC has monitored evidence, including
from secret intelligence, of continuing work on Iraqi offensive chemical and
biological warfare capabilities. In the first half of 2000 the JIC noted
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