19
Direct Foreign Investment:
Direct foreign investment (DFI) in
1995 averaged $1172 million, compared with $307 million in 1990.
Most of the investment and the increase were accounted for by
Brazil and Mexico, and to a lesser extent Peru and Guatemala.
Only in Haiti was DFI lower in 1995 than in 1990.
For 1999 we
expect DFI to increase in almost all countries in the region,
with average investment double that of 1995 levels.
Europe and the New Independent States:
Economic Freedom:
From 1995 to 1997 scores for Economic Freedom
clearly improved for nine countries in the region; were
essentially unchanged for five countries; clearly worsened in six
countries; and were not estimated for seven countries.
Altogether, the average score for the region showed a slight
improvement.
From 1997 to 1999 we expect improvements for
roughly half of the countries in the region.
Trade:
Merchandise trade data covering the first half of the
1990's are available for only five countries in the region.
We
expect data for the second half of the 1990's to be generally
available, and to show positive growth in real terms in both
imports and exports for at least 80% of the countries, assuming
no increase in the prevalence of crisis.
The magnitudes are
extremely uncertain.
Net Direct Foreign Investment:
Net direct foreign investment in
1995 averaged $654 million, not counting Bosnia, Cyprus, and
Ireland.
All of the remaining countries experienced net inflows
except Georgia, where the figure was zero.
Four countries
accounted for the bulk of net DFI in 1995, Hungary, Poland, the
Czech Republic, and Russia.
For 1999 we expect net DFI to
increase in most countries of the region, assuming no increase in
crisis prevalence.
The magnitude of the increase is uncertain.
5.
Reliance on concessional foreign aid decreased in advanced
countries.
Sub Saharan Africa:
Only South Africa and Namibia are candidates
for advanced status.
Between now and 1999, we expect the ratio
of concessional aid to GNP to remain low in South Africa, though
possibly showing a rising trend from the 1994 figure of 0.2%;
and, to continue falling in Namibia from the 1994 figure of 4.7%.
Asia and the Near East:
For Indonesia, Philippines, and Morocco,
the average ratio of aid to GNP declined from 2.9% in 1990 to
1.6% in 1994.
The corresponding figures for Jordan were 24.6% in
1990 and 6.5% in 1994.
By 1999 we expect the ratio of aid to GNP
to fall below 1 per cent for
Indonesia, Philippines, and
Morocco, and below 4% for Lebanon.
The ratio is expected to
increase somewhat for Jordan.
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