17
no 1995 scores; and in India and Vietnam, where there was no
change.
From 1997 to 1999 we expect a further improvement of 7
percentage points in the average score, with improvements for 80%
of USAID recipients covered by the survey.
Trade
During the first half of the 1990's merchandise exports
from the region grew on average by nearly 11% annually in "real"
or "volume" terms, while imports increased by nearly 8% annually
on average.
These figures are well above GDP growth rates, both
on average and for most countries.
Trade stagnated only in Egypt
and Morocco. Import growth was slow in India, less than 3%.
Data
are not available for Cambodia, Mongolia, Vietnam, and West
Bank/Gaza.
For the second half of the 1990's, we expect export
growth for USAID recipients in the region to average around 9%
annually, depending critically on continued expansion in the
industrialized countries; and, import growth to average around
8%.
Direct Foreign Investment
Direct foreign investment in 1995
averaged $750 million, compared with $215 million in 1990.
Most
of the investment, and most of the increase, were accounted for
by Indonesia, India, Vietnam, and Philippines. (There were no
data for Israel and West Bank/Gaza).
Only in Egypt was there a
significant decline in DFI.
For 1999 we expect DFI to increase
in almost all countries of the region (compared with 1995), with
average investment doubling.
Latin America and Caribbean:
Economic Freedom:
From 1995 to 1997, scores for Economic Freedom
improved for most countries in the region.
In Honduras and
Paraguay scores were unchanged; in Brazil and Dominican Republic
there were slight declines; and in Mexico there was a more
significant, 10% decline.
From 1997 to 1999 we expect a further
4% improvement in the average score, with improvements in 75% of
USAID recipients.
Trade:
During the first half of the 1990's, merchandise exports
from the region grew on average by over 4% in "real" or "volume"
terms, while imports increased by over 10% on average.
There was
considerable variation in export growth, including declines in
Bolivia, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Paraguay; and
double digit growth in Panama, El Salvador, Honduras, Mexico and
Peru.
Import growth was more uniformly positive and high, with
the exception of Haiti.
For 1995 1999 we expect growth in
imports to average around 8%, and growth in exports to average
around 5%.
The widening trade deficit implied by these
statistics reflects the anticipated increase in foreign
investment in the region.
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