16
Monitoring trends in social conditions, including the incidence
of poverty, is an important means of assessing the sustainability
of both political and economic reforms.
However, the scarcity of
data and analysis on poverty issues means that USAID has no firm
basis at this time on which to set goals and targets or to
predict expected performance in reducing poverty in the countries
of the region.
As in other regions, trends in poverty in ENI are
likely to mirror trends in economic growth.
4.
Openness and reliance on private markets increased.
Sub Saharan Africa:
Economic Freedom:
From 1995 to 1997, scores for Economic Freedom
clearly improved for seven countries in the region (with the
largest improvements for Mali, Mozambique, Tanzania, and
Madagascar); were substantially unchanged for five others; and
clearly declined in three countries (Guinea, Malawi, and
Zimbabwe).
Altogether there was a modest, 3% improvement in the
average score for the fifteen covered countries.
From 1997 to
1999 we expect a further modest improvement in the average score,
with clear improvements for one half of the countries covered,
assuming no increase in the prevalence of crisis.
Trade
During the 1990 95 period only eight countries in Africa
achieved positive real growth in merchandise exports, while
imports grew in real terms in only ten countries.
For 1995 99 we
expect positive real growth in exports and imports for a clear
majority of countries in the region assuming no increase in the
prevalence of crisis.
Direct Foreign Investment (Net)
Leaving aside countries without
data (Liberia, Somalia, Eritrea), average direct foreign
investment (DFI) in USAID recipients increased from about $30
million in 1990 to $90 million in 1995, with considerable
variation in levels and trends among countries. Much of the
increase was attributable to a huge swing in DFI in Angola, from
 $335 million to +$400 million.
There were also major increases
in DFI in Ghana, Tanzania, and Uganda; and notable declines in
Senegal, Zambia, and to a lesser extent Kenya. Overall DFI
increased by non negligible amounts in thirteen of the twenty one
countries with data. For the 1995 1999 period we expect DFI to
increase significantly in three fourths of the countries,
assuming no increase in the prevalence of crisis.
Asia and Near East:
Economic Freedom:
From 1995 to 1997 scores for Economic Freedom
improved for every country in the region except in Nepal,
Cambodia, Lebanon, and West Bank/Gaza, for all of which there are
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