13
course of the 1992 96 period for almost all countries that did
not achieve the 1% benchmark. Eight of these countries achieved
clearly positive growth in per capita income in 1996.
For the
1995 99 period we expect two thirds of the countries in the
region to surpass the 1% benchmark.
2.
Average annual growth in agriculture at least as high as
population growth achieved in low income countries.
Sub Saharan Africa:
In this region, "low income" includes all
countries except South Africa and Namibia.
For the 1990 95
period, agricultural growth exceeded population growth in only
four countries and was about the same as population growth in
three others.
In most of the remaining countries agricultural
growth was positive, but slower than population growth.
Only in
Angola, Rwanda, and Burundi were there clear declines in
agricultural production.
For the 1995 99 period we expect about
half of the low income aid recipients in Africa to have
agricultural growth at least as high as population growth, again
assuming no increase in the prevalence of crisis.
Asia and the Near East:
While economic growth in most of the
seven low income countries in the region was fairly rapid, only
India, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam managed agricultural growth above
population growth for the 1990 95 period.
For the 1995 99 period
we expect agricultural growth to be close to or well above
population growth for most low income countries in the region;
most are expected to gain additional access to food through
imports, as a result of growing foreign exchange earnings.
Latin America and the Caribbean:
In the region, Guyana,
Honduras, Haiti, and Nicaragua qualify as low income using the
IBRD threshold of 1996 per capita income below $785.
For 1990 95
Honduras barely met the performance goal; Nicaragua and Haiti
fell well below; and data for Guyana are incomplete.
For the
1995 99 period we expect Nicaragua and Honduras to surpass the
benchmark.
Europe and the New Independent States:
Looking at the 1990 1995
period, out of seven low income countries in the region, only
Albania (7.6% growth in agriculture), surpassed the benchmark.
Elsewhere, agricultural production declined, including
drastically in Georgia.
(Agricultural data are not available for
Azerbaijan.)
On the basis of encouraging trends for countries
with data, we expect five of the region's low income countries to
achieve agricultural growth rates at least as high as population
growth rates for 1995 1999.
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